US Equity Supply Monitor
For several decades, with few interruptions, US nonfinancial corporations have been net buyers of their own equity. Buybacks persistently exceed new issuance, shrinking the float and providing a mechanical tailwind to equity prices. This monitor tracks whether that regime remains intact, using the Federal Reserve's Z.1 Flow of Funds data (series NCBCEBQ027S), updated quarterly with a ~3–4 month lag.
Negative = corporations net buyers (supply shrinks — tailwind). Positive = net new equity supply being created (headwind). Single-quarter spikes are often M&A driven; the 4-quarter rolling average is the cleaner signal to watch.
Methodology
Source
Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1 release), Table F.103. Retrieved via FRED API.
Coverage
All US nonfinancial corporations, public and private. Nets out buyback repurchases, M&A equity retirements, and gross new issuance (IPOs, secondaries, employee grants).
Update cadence
Quarterly, ~3–4 month lag. Next Fed Z.1 release: Sep 10, 2026.